November Elections 2026

Democrats are strong favorites to win the House in the November 3, 2026, elections, according to forecasts and prediction markets as of early October.

Republicans currently hold a narrow majority in the 119th Congress: 218 seats to 214 for Democrats, plus 1 independent and 2 vacancies. A majority requires 218 seats, so Democrats need a net gain of only a few seats. All 435 voting seats are on the ballot.

Prediction markets price Democratic control at roughly 91–92.5% on Kalshi and Polymarket. Model-based forecasts are in a similar range: one simulation (Fred Cornell, updated October 6) gives Democrats a 96% chance with a median outcome around 244 seats, while others cluster near 88–95%. The Cook Political Report’s late-September assessment projected Democrats on track to gain 5–15 seats (roughly 220–230 total), and its October 6 commentary described a Republican-to-Democratic flip as clear even if the exact margin is not. Mid-cycle redistricting has narrowed the map somewhat relative to earlier in the year, but generic-ballot leads and the president’s approval rating are cited as the main drivers of the Democratic edge. These probabilities can still shift with late developments.

Democrats are slight to moderate favorites to win Senate control in most forecasts as of October 6, 2026, roughly a month before the November 3 election, though the outcome remains competitive.

Prediction markets price Democrats at about 64–65% to take the chamber and Republicans at about 35%, according to Polymarket and Kalshi snapshots from early October. Other models put the Democratic probability in a similar range: Decision Desk HQ describes Democrats as narrowly favored, a Fred Cornell simulation gives them a 58% chance of reaching 51 or more seats, and Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin model was near 59% in mid-September.

The Cook Political Report’s October 6 overview says a Democratic majority is “squarely in Democrats’ sights” and estimates potential Democratic gains of two to six seats—the four-seat net gain needed for a 51-seat majority falls inside that range. Sabato’s Crystal Ball has also shifted several ratings toward Democrats recently, including moving Alaska to Leans Democratic, and notes that Republicans would now need to win more of the remaining toss-ups to hold the chamber.

GET OUT AND VOTE RED Or we loose this country…