Deep Dive into where we are in 2025 with the Ukraine issue

Background
The Belovezha Accords emerged amid the Soviet Union’s rapid decline in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Several factors set the stage:
- Gorbachev’s Reforms: Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev introduced glasnost (openness) and perestroika (restructuring) to modernize the USSR. While these policies aimed to revitalize the system, they instead fueled nationalist movements and exposed deep economic and political weaknesses.
- Economic Collapse: By 1991, the Soviet economy was in freefall—widespread shortages, a plummeting ruble, and systemic inefficiencies crippled daily life, eroding public faith in the central government.
- Nationalism and Independence: Republics such as Ukraine, Belarus, and the Baltic states increasingly sought autonomy or outright independence, driven by decades of suppressed national identity.
- August 1991 Coup: A failed coup by hardline communists against Gorbachev in August 1991 weakened his authority and accelerated the disintegration of central power. Boris Yeltsin, president of the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic (RSFSR), emerged as a key figure opposing the coup, boosting his influence.
- Legal Precedent: The three signatory republics—Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus—were original founders of the USSR under the 1922 Treaty on the Creation of the USSR. Their coordinated exit carried symbolic and legal weight in dissolving the union they had helped form.
By late 1991, Gorbachev’s efforts to preserve the USSR through a new Union Treaty were faltering. The Belovezha Accords delivered the decisive blow.
The Signing
The Belovezha Accords were signed on December 8, 1991, at a government hunting lodge near Viskuli in the Belovezhskaya Pushcha National Park, a remote forest in western Belarus. The key participants were:
- Russia: President Boris Yeltsin and First Deputy Prime Minister Gennady Burbulis.
- Ukraine: President Leonid Kravchuk.
- Belarus: Chairman of the Supreme Soviet Stanislav Shushkevich and Prime Minister Vyacheslav Kebich.
Initially framed as a discussion on economic cooperation and energy supplies (e.g., oil and gas flows to Ukraine and Belarus), the meeting quickly pivoted to a more radical agenda: dissolving the Soviet Union entirely. The decision was bold and somewhat spontaneous, driven by Yeltsin’s ambition to assert Russia’s dominance and Kravchuk’s push for Ukrainian independence, following a December 1 referendum in which 90% of Ukrainians voted for sovereignty.
The document itself was drafted rapidly, with input from legal advisors such as Russia’s Sergei Shakhrai. It was concise—only 14 articles—reflecting the urgency and the need for a clear, immediate declaration rather than a detailed treaty.
Content of the Accords
The Belovezha Accords (officially titled the Agreement Establishing the Commonwealth of Independent States) consisted of a preamble and 14 articles. Below is a breakdown:
Preamble
- Declared that “the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, as a subject of international law and a geopolitical reality, is ceasing its existence.”
- Stated that the signatories were acting based on “historical commonality” and the will of their peoples (e.g., Ukraine’s referendum).
Key Articles
- Formation of the CIS (Article 1): Established the Commonwealth of Independent States as a voluntary association of sovereign states, not a successor state to the USSR.
- Sovereignty (Article 2): Affirmed the independence and territorial integrity of each signatory state, guaranteeing mutual recognition of borders.
- End of Soviet Laws (Article 5): Stated that USSR laws would no longer apply in the signatories’ territories after ratification, though transitional coordination was implied.
- Cooperation (Articles 6-7): Committed the states to collaborate on defense, economic policy, and foreign affairs within the CIS framework, including maintaining a unified military command temporarily.
- Human Rights (Article 4): Pledged adherence to international norms on human rights and freedoms.
- Open Membership (Article 9): Allowed other former Soviet republics to join the CIS if they accepted the accords’ terms.
- Nuclear Weapons (Article 6): Addressed the USSR’s nuclear arsenal, with an implicit understanding (later formalized) that Russia would inherit control, while Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan would eventually denuclearize.
The accords avoided micromanaging practicalities, leaving issues like currency, trade, and military division to future negotiations.
Immediate Aftermath
Ratification
- Belarus: Ratified on December 10, 1991.
- Ukraine: Ratified on December 10, 1991.
- Russia: Ratified on December 12, 1991.
These swift approvals cemented the accords’ legitimacy.
Gorbachev’s Reaction
Gorbachev called the accords illegal, arguing that dissolving the USSR required broader consent from all 15 republics and a constitutional process. However, he lacked the power to reverse them.
Global Notification
Yeltsin called U.S. President George H.W. Bush on December 8 to inform him of the decision, emphasizing stability (e.g., nuclear control under Russia). The West largely welcomed the end of the Soviet threat.
Alma-Ata Protocol
On December 21, 1991, 11 of the 15 former Soviet republics met in Almaty, Kazakhstan, and signed a protocol expanding the CIS, formalizing the USSR’s end. Gorbachev resigned on December 25, and the Soviet flag was lowered from the Kremlin that night.
Implications
End of the Cold War
The accords dismantled the USSR, ending the bipolar world order dominated by the U.S.-Soviet rivalry.
Russia as Successor
Russia inherited the USSR’s UN Security Council seat, nuclear arsenal, and much of its international standing, though its territory and influence were significantly reduced.
Independence Movements
The accords emboldened other republics (e.g., Georgia, Armenia, the Baltics) to solidify their independence, though some faced conflicts (e.g., Chechnya, Nagorno-Karabakh).
Economic and Social Chaos
The abrupt dissolution triggered economic turmoil—hyperinflation, unemployment, and disrupted trade—across the former Soviet space.
Legacy
Historical Milestone
The Belovezha Accords are seen as one of the 20th century’s most consequential agreements, reshaping global geopolitics.
Controversy
Some, especially in Russia, later criticized Yeltsin and the signatories for acting rashly, blaming them for post-Soviet instability. Nostalgia for the USSR persists in parts of the region.
CIS Weakness
The Commonwealth of Independent States never became a strong unifying body, as national interests diverged, and some members (e.g., Ukraine) distanced themselves over time.
Fun Fact
The name “Belovezha” comes from the Belovezhskaya Pushcha forest, a UNESCO site famous for its bison and pristine wilderness. The serene setting sharply contrasted with the monumental decision made there.
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